Counterfactual Thinking
Have you ever wondered about what could have been, if only something in the past had been different? Maybe if you had studied harder, you would have made a better grade. Or, if you had taken a different route home, then you wouldn’t have been in an accident. Perhaps you’ve wondered what your life would look like if you could go back and make different choices. These thoughts about an alternative reality or how things “might have been” are referred to as counterfactual thoughts.
Counterfactual thinking is a common feature of human cognition and occur more frequently after negative events or an unmet goal. The ability to engage in counterfactual thinking appears to emerge in early childhood (around age 2) and is often expressed as conditional propositions (e.g., “If only I hadn’t been texting, then I wouldn’t have been in the accident.”) As a result, counterfactuals highlight how an imaged alternative could have been better (upward counterfactuals) or worse (downward counterfactuals) than reality. Benefits of counterfactual thinking (e.g., increased motivation, behavioral change) are often associated with upward counterfactuals; however, counterfactuals can result in negative effects (e.g., increased negative affect, biased judgments). The potential benefits of counterfactual thinking depend on whether the criteria for functionality has been met.
There are four criteria that must be met for a counterfactual to be functional:
1.) A casual antecedent must be correctly identified
2.) The antecedent must be controllable (i.e., be able to be acted upon by the individual)
3.) The counterfactual must result in the means or motivation to change future behavior
4.) Recognition of a future opportunity where these changes could be applied is required.
Our lab has an on-going interest in understanding the conditions in which functional (vs. dysfunctional) counterfactuals occur. In our lab, we are interested in examining individuals’ counterfactual thought generation, content, and the downstream consequences of these thoughts.
A way in which we examine counterfactuals is through the pictured intention pathway. Counterfactuals can influence future behavior by (1) a negative event triggering you to identify something you could have done differently (that could have changed the outcome), which then (2) strengthens behavioral intentions (i.e., the intention to perform the identified behavior), which in turn can result in (3) one performing the identified behavior in the future and improving that future outcome.
To put this into context, say you failed a recent test. This failure triggers you to think, “If only I had studied more, I would have done better on the test.” This counterfactual identifies a behavior (studying) that could have changed the outcome, which leads to the intention to study more for future tests. The next time a test comes around, you study more for your test (i.e., engage in the identified behavior) and (hopefully) get a better grade!
Counterfactual Thinking In The Lab
Our current projects in the lab examine the cognitive processes involved in counterfactual thinking and their affective, cognitive, and behavioral consequences (both functional and dysfunctional). While some of the research focuses on the basic science involved in counterfactual thinking, some of our current projects also investigate how we can apply these findings to other domains, such as health behaviors, work safety, and risk appraisal. Below are some research questions that guide our on-going projects:
- Can counterfactual thinking be used as a cognitive intervention to change future behaviors, specifically in the health domain?
- Current projects focus on how to improve dietary choices among diabetics, reduce maladaptive drinking in college students, improve work safety and procedure adherence, and reduce distracted driving behaviors.
- Can counterfactual thinking influence our perceptions about past and future behaviors?
- Current projects focus on our memories for past events (and how counterfactuals might change them) and risk appraisals for risky behaviors (like texting and driving).
- How do individual differences impact the processes involved in and the consequences of counterfactual thinking?
- Current projects focus on how mindsets (e.g., failure beliefs), personality traits (e.g., narcissism), and demographics (e.g., first-generation status) can influence counterfactual content and whether counterfactuals have functional or dysfunctional consequences.
Counterfactual Thinking In The Real World
What do counterfactuals look like in the real world? The scene below, from the film The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, shows Benjamin identifying various factors involved in Daisy’s accident and how, if something had gone differently, the outcome could have been different.
And if only one thing had happened differently – if that shoelace hadn’t broke; or that delivery truck had moved moments earlier; or that package had been wrapped and ready because the girl hadn’t broken up with her boyfriend; or that man had set his alarm and got up five minutes earlier; or that taxi driver hadn’t stopped for a cup of coffee; or that woman had remembered her coat, and got into an earlier cab; Daisy and her friend would’ve crossed the street, and the taxi would’ve driven by.
Many scenarios, like the one above, are common occurrences that feel all too familiar. If only you had studied more, then you would have performed better on your test. If only you had gotten up earlier, then you wouldn’t have been late for your appointment. Counterfactuals allow us to imagine ‘what could have been,’ and the next time a similar situation occurs, it can lead us to change our behavior. If you’ve ever failed a test, did you change your study habits for your next test? If you were late for an appointment, did you take precautions the next time you needed to be somewhere to ensure you were on time? It is this ability to generate imagined alternatives that can impact our future thoughts and behaviors that makes counterfactual thinking so fascinating.
For more on counterfactual thinking, see below.
Byrne, R. M. (2016). Counterfactual thought. Annual review of psychology, 67, 135-157. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-122414-033249
Roese, N. J. (1997). Counterfactual thinking. Psychological Bulletin, 121(1), 133–148. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.121.1.133
Roese, N. J., & Epstude, K. (2017). The functional theory of counterfactual thinking: New evidence, new challenges, new insights. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 56, 1-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.aesp.2017.02.001Smallman, R., & Summerville, A. (2018). Counterfactual thought in reasoning and performance. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 12(4), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12376
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